• The effect of climate change on the growth of Japanese chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) using a bioenergetics model coupled with a three-dimensional lower trophic ecosystem model (NEMURO)

Kishi, Michio J.

Kaeriyama, Masahide

Ueno, Hiromichi

Kamezawa, Yasuko

  • Other bioenergetics model
  • Other Japanese chum salmon
  • Other size reduction
  • Other NEMURO
  • Other global warming
  • NDC 452
  • From the 1970s to 1990s, a reduction in the body size of Japanese chum salmon
    (Oncorhynchus keta) was observed. To investigate this body size reduction in the North
    Pacific, we developed a bioenergetics model for chum salmon coupled with the results
    from a lower trophic ecosystem model embedded into a three-dimensional global model.
    In the bioenergetics model, respiration and consumption terms are assumed to be
    functions of water temperature and prey zooplankton density, which are the determining
    factors of the reduction of body size. The model reproduced the body size of the 1972
    and 1991 year classes of chum salmon. The reproduced body size of the 1972 year class
    was larger than that of 1991 year class, and this result agrees with observations from the
    Bering Sea. Our model also reproduced the body size trend from l970 to 2000. The prey
    density, especially in the eastern North Pacific, had a greater influence on the change of
    body size than did the SST. This suggests that the size reduction of Japanese chum
    salmon in the 1990s was partly affected by changes in prey zooplankton density. In the
    context of the global warming scenario, we discuss changes in the migration route of
    chum salmon and predict that the population of Japanese chum salmon experience
    significant declines over this century.
Date Issued 2010-07
NIItypejournal article
Identifier URI
  • isIdenticalTo DOI
    • ISSN 0967-0645
    • Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography
    57(13-14), 1257-1265