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Title
  • ja 近年発生した極端豪雨に対する数値予報降雨の適用性について
Alternative
  • CLARIFYING THE ACCURACY OF NUMERIC RAINFALL FORECASTS TO EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS
Creator

沖, 岳大

中津川, 誠

Rights
    • © copyright 2015 土木学会
Subject
  • Other 降雨予測
  • Other 数値気象予測モデル
  • Other GSM
  • Other MSM
  • Other 極端豪雨
  • Other Rainfall forecast
  • Other Numerical weather forecast model
  • Other GSM
  • Other MSM
  • Other Extremely heavy rainfall
  • NDC 517
Description
Other
  • In recent years, refinement in the accuracy of rainfall forecasting has been called for in Japan because of extremely heavy rainfalls that have occurred in various areas. For dam operation in particular, accurate rainfall forecasting would be greatly beneficial in allowing for the release of water prior to a forecast heavy rainfall event, which would make it possible to increase water control and water use capacities. Comparison of the cumulative rainfall forecasts calculated by using the numerical weather forecast models, GSM and MSM, with actually measured rainfall revealed that the accuracy of the two models was good for long period rainfall events such as those caused by typhoons. The accuracy of the MSM rainfall forecast for localized heavy rainfall that occurs in a short period was also found to be good. A calibration method, which can be used in disaster mitigation and dam operations, was suggested thorough clarification of the error ranges of rainfall forecasting.
Publisher土木学会
Date Created 2019-03-13 , Issued 2015
Languagejpn
NIItypejournal article
VersiontypeVoR
Identifier URI http://hdl.handle.net/10258/00009755
Relation
  • isIdenticalTo DOI https://doi.org/10.2208/jscejhe.71.I_1297
  • isIdenticalTo NAID 130005123446
  • isVersionOf URI https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jscejhe/71/4/71_217/_pdf/-char/ja
Journal
    • NCID AA12373113
    • ISSN 2185-467X
    • 土木学会論文集B1(水工学) = Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)
    71(4), I_1297-I_1302
File
Oaidate2020-06-25T06:57:01Z