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Title
  • ja 近年発生した極端豪雨に対する数値予報降雨の適用性について
  • en CLARIFYING THE ACCURACY OF NUMERIC RAINFALL FORECASTS TO EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS
Creator
    • ja 沖, 岳大 en OKI, Takehiro ja-Kana オキ, タケヒロ
    • ja 中津川, 誠 en NAKATSUGAWA, Makoto ja-Kana ナカツガワ, マコト
Accessrights open access
Rights
  • ja © copyright 2015 土木学会
Subject
  • NDC 517
  • Other ja 降雨予測
  • Other ja 数値気象予測モデル
  • Other en GSM
  • Other en MSM
  • Other ja 極端豪雨
  • Other en Rainfall forecast
  • Other en Numerical weather forecast model
  • Other en GSM
  • Other en MSM
  • Other en Extremely heavy rainfall
Description
  • Other application/pdf
  • Abstract en In recent years, refinement in the accuracy of rainfall forecasting has been called for in Japan because of extremely heavy rainfalls that have occurred in various areas. For dam operation in particular, accurate rainfall forecasting would be greatly beneficial in allowing for the release of water prior to a forecast heavy rainfall event, which would make it possible to increase water control and water use capacities. Comparison of the cumulative rainfall forecasts calculated by using the numerical weather forecast models, GSM and MSM, with actually measured rainfall revealed that the accuracy of the two models was good for long period rainfall events such as those caused by typhoons. The accuracy of the MSM rainfall forecast for localized heavy rainfall that occurs in a short period was also found to be good. A calibration method, which can be used in disaster mitigation and dam operations, was suggested thorough clarification of the error ranges of rainfall forecasting.
Publisher ja 土木学会
Date
    Issued2015
Language
  • jpn
Resource Type journal article
Version Type VoR
Identifier HDL http://hdl.handle.net/10258/00009755 , URI https://muroran-it.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/9807
Relation
  • isIdenticalTo NAID 130005123446
  • isIdenticalTo DOI https://doi.org/10.2208/jscejhe.71.I_1297
  • isVersionOf URI https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jscejhe/71/4/71_217/_pdf/-char/ja
Journal
    • PISSN 2185-467X
    • NCID AA12373113
      • ja 土木学会論文集B1（水工学） en Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)
      • Volume Number71 Issue Number4 Page StartI_1297 Page EndI_1302
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Oaidate 2023-12-29